Climate change could affect India’s GDP, warns report

Kolkata: Climate change and global warming could have an effect on India’s GDP in the near future, warns a report published by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).By 2030, the report warns, temperatures in India could reach such levels that in sectors exposed to lethal heat waves, workers might be forced to cut short daylight working hours. The impact of global heating on outdoor work and the resultant loss in productivity could put 2.5% to 4.5% of India’s GDP at risk annually, estimates MGI.Unless there is an effective adaptation response and de-carbonization, within 10 years, 160 million to 200 million people in India could live in regions that might be exposed to lethal heat waves every year. In case that happens, in many areas, temperatures could exceed the survivability threshold. It might reach lethal levels and just 4 to 5 hours of outdoor exposure could turn fatal for a healthy, well-hydrated human being at rest in shade. By 2050, several pockets in India and Pakistan are projected to experience a more-than-60% annual chance of such a heat wave.The issue is so serious that the report has suggested mass climate migration as an adaptive measure. “Reducing exposure in high-risk areas could be one means by which to manage risk, as is being considered today in flood-prone regions,” Mekala Krishnan, one of the authors of the report, told TOI.The sectors at greater risk include agriculture, mining, and quarrying, as also also indoor sectors with poor AC penetration, such as manufacturing, hospitality, and transport. The urban poor, too, are likely to be disproportionately affected.Heat and humidity could affect labour productivity, “with workers needing to take more breaks and the human body naturally limiting its efforts to prevent over-exertion,” the report says.In case greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, urban areas in parts of India and Pakistan could be the first places in the world to experience heat waves that exceed the survivability threshold. In India, the coasts and the Gangetic plains are “exposed to higher risk of extreme heat and humidity compared with the higher elevation and interior Deccan plain, because these regions facilitate the mixing of humid oceanic air with hot and dry continental air. The current lethal heat wave risk is restricted to a small area along the Pakistan-India border,” the report says.“As of 2017, in India, heat-exposed work produces about 50% of GDP, drives about 30% of GDP growth, and employs about 75% of the labour force, some 380 million people,” it adds.For adaptation in the short term, India can focus on early-warning systems and cooling shelters to protect those without air-conditioning. “Working hours for outdoor workers could be shifted, and... at the extreme, coordinated movement of people and capital from high-risk areas could be organized,” the report suggests.“The report highlights a series of adaptation measures that stakeholder can consider. They include protecting assets and people, building resilience, reducing exposure, and using finance and insurance,” said Krishnan.Reacting to the MGI report, Subhashis Sahu of Kalyani University’s Ergonomics & Occupational Physiology Laboratory said: “More than 80% workers engaged in informal sectors in India are exposed to occupation heat stress. The climate change with anticipated increase in heat exposure will certainly affect the productivity. Our study on rice harvesters, brickfield workers and construction workers showed that a rise in WBGT (heat stress) by one degree Celsius will bring down productivity by up to 10%. It will also cause more cardiac stress, early fatigue and heat exertion. The older and female workers are more vulnerable to such stress factors.” Sahu’s work on loss of productivity caused by rising temperature have been cited by ILO and IPCC in their reports. Maitreesh Ghatak, of The London School of Economics and Political Science, said: “Climate change will have a serious impact on growth and this will be particularly pronounced in developing countries like India and the consequence (of global warming) on nearly 50% of the working population in India that depend on agriculture will be severe.”Economist Bibhas Saha of Durham University Business School, UK, said: “The manifestation of climate risk will be local. So, the costs, too, will be very unevenly distributed. But temperature rise will badly hit the agricultural sector. In some places like Kashmir and Uttarakhand, agricultural productivity will increase, but in the rest of the country the effects may be deadly, with harsh and prolonged summers and unpredictable rain.”